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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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