A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
